A MacGuffin is a plot device that advances the storyline or motivates the characters but has little relevance to the story. The Oscar-ignored but still legendary Alfred Hitchcock popularized and made it as an art form. The ugly bird statue in The Maltese Falcon is the best example of a MacGuffin.
Today, there is a huge MacGuffin hovering in the Philippine political landscape. It is the 2010 presidential elections. But this is a much-improved MacGuffin. Unlike Hitchcock's, the 2010 MacGuffin has huge relevance to the story. Plus the motivation it provides for the lead personalities would shame the acting exploits of Sydney Greenstreet and Peter Lorre.
Story: The 15th President of the Philippines
MacGuffin: 2010 Presidential Elections
Red Herring: The Senate Presidency and the so-called Opposition Split
Lead Characters
1. Manuel Villar
2. Manuel Roxas
3. Panfilo Lacson
Supporting Characters
1. Loren Legarda
2. Francis Escudero
3. Alan Peter Cayetano
The two Manuels is sure to run in the next big fight. Lacson will take another stab. Legarda is the a senate topnotcher twice and is touted to be a strong presidentiable. Escudero is the dark horse. He finished a close and strong second and has the strong political backing. The main criticism is his youth and lack of national experience. As they say, he has so much time in the world.
The battle for the senate leadership is a red herring but with huge consequences. I believe that this is a staged act. Roxas, Lacson, and Legarda are pushing for Nene Pimentel's candidacy. But it is so obvious that they are doing so to remove a huge 2010 obstacle which is Manuel Villar. It seems that he will have a huge advantage over his future rivals if he retains his current position. As Roxas articulated, 'this is to level the playing field in 2010.' Such hypocrisy! After winning in 2004, this guy faded into obscurity then tried to resurrect his dismal performance with a so-called public service ad in the last elections. Oh. He raised a howl on his pet bill.
Question: why doesn't any of the three senators run for the Upper House presidency?
Answer: I have no idea.
Everything seems to be going smooth until it hit two bumps, Escudero and Alan Peter Cayetano will vote for Villar.
How can these two rabid oppositionist vote for Villar? Cayetano has not said anything and Escudero assured that he will remain an opposition regarding pertinent issues.
So...the three lead characters will not be able to stop Villar. Thus throwing another red herring - the opposition split. Serge Osmena has said that the 2010 elections is causing the fracture in the Genuine Opposition. He is most definitely correct. Lacson intimated that Villar had an alliance with the Gloria Macapagal Arroyo after the midterm elections. But of course, the loyalty issue lost credibility with Roxas' 'level the playing field strategy.'
Villar, much as I dislike this guy, run under the opposition slate. He has not done anything (at least in public) that shows he has abandon the cause of the opposition unless you count the Lacson-Defensor Santiago floated rumors. He has lost a lot of ground in the last elections placing a dismal fourth. He thus needs to achieve some sort of political rebound. Roxas is in dire need of a political revival. In a one-on-one match with strict observance of financial use, Escudero will trample Roxas.
The odd one is Legarda. She is backing Pimentel but is not as vocal as Lacson and Roxas. I'm sure she is simply a wise predator. Watching silently as her testosterone-fueled rivals are fighting. But I am sure, given the right time, she'll sharpen those Pashmina-covered claws. Remember the rumors that she has dropped her fellow GO candidates in her sample ballots? She retorted that she will never do that and pointed out that her newspaper ads included all the candidates of the opposition. This is a half-truth. Sure the newspaper ad part is correct but the sample ballots? No. I still keep her sample ballots that was given to us by her father. It only included her name, Nikki Coseteng, and Martin Bautista. She is beautiful but she is also vicious.
Escudero is like a young owl perching wisely in a huge tree - watching his much older peers squabbling for position. He holds a great political momentum including a strong political party, an enormous youth volunteer group and that x-factor called charisma. That's why Lacson and company is trumpeting an opposition split and short of accusing Escudero and Cayetano of abandoning their cause.
Now, there is one character in this story that is not given much attention. Joseph Estrada. It did not came as a shocker that his son Jinggoy Estrada is rumored to be supporting Manuel Villar. Why? He did it before along with his mother. Eventually a new gossip floated: Manny Villar-Jinggoy Estrada for 2010. Expectedly, San Juan Mayor JV Ejercito expressed disappointment and sadness over the decisions of Escudero and Cayetano. But I am pretty sure that his emotion is really directed to his half-brother. It's a common knowledge that there is no love lost between the two.
One thing that puzzles me is this, why make a big fuss about the senate leadership? Whoever wins does not change the fact that the majority of the Filipinos hates the current administration. The opposition got whacked in the Lower House but still most of us would want a successful impeachment. Get this: the senate is not the 'genuine' opposition - the majority of the Filipinos are. Last elections, we just provided you a mandate so that our sentiments would be heard.
Do I honestly care about the senate leadership? Hell no. But I do want this senate to challenge the brutality and tyranny of the current administration. The two senate neophytes accused of treacherous acts suffered most of this administration's oppressive moves. Cayetano had to struggle with an unknown namesake while Escudero almost suffered the fate. Everything was thrown to this two except for the proverbial kitchen sink. You think they are stupid enough to strike an alliance with the enemy? They are young but they are not Gringo Honasan.
Reader, are you still following me? Are you still feeling well?
No?
Me too.
This is one MacGuffin in dire need of a conclusion. The bad news is that we have to wait for three more years to see its end.
I believe that a Manuel Villar-led senate is more beneficial for the opposition than an Aquilino Pimentel presidency. Not that I believe in Villar nor do I hate Pimentel. I did not even vote for him in the recent elections. On the other hand, I would really want to see an oppositionist bang the gavel in the Upper House.
In order to analyze the mind of the current senate president, you need to think like him – a shrewd businessman. However, if you desire to keep in step or go ahead of him, then you need to counter think his moves.
It is still 2007 but any astute politician is planning ahead. Ahead refers to 2010, the presidential elections. Unless Conrado De Quiros’ theory comes true in which he posited that the lasting legacy of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo is literally herself. Constitutional changes aside, the path to power in the next big electoral contest is paved for the opposition. There are so many presidentiables in the opposing side than those in the administration group. Presidentiables that are deemed solid oppositionists are Loren Legarda, Panfilo Lacson, Francis Escudero, and even Jejomar Binay. Those that are considered soft oppositionists are Manuel Roxas III and Manuel Villar. The best bet of the administration is Noli De Castro, although I have heard rumors that he will not run for higher office even if he is a heartbeat away from the plum post. Unless Prospero Pichay runs…
This scenario poses a problem. The present administration controls the majority of local positions through the Lakas and Kampi parties. Simply put, who will control the so-called political machinery? Even if the so-called ‘command vote’ sputtered for Team Unity in the last elections, it will still serve a huge edge for any presidential candidate.
How the leadership of the senate get in the convoluted picture? Analyze the following situations.
First scenario: Senate President Manuel Villar
He needs votes from the ranks of the opposition in order to retain his position. This will not take anything away from the opposition since Villar is identified with. He is technically an oppositionist. We should remember that it was the vote of the Estradas that formalized his senate leadership. In other words, Villar kept his promise and sided with the opposition. Unless it is but superficial, the man keeps his promises. If he remains as senate president, he does not have any reason to jump over the administration fence. It will be a bad move for his part. If you want to become president, you should not be doing bad moves in the next three years.
Second scenario: Senate President Aquilino Pimentel
This means that Villar loses in which case, he may join the administration. It will still leave a bad taste but not as much compared to the first scenario. However, this will be a serious blow to the opposition. Although, it is rather certain that most of the presidentiables will come from their forces, they need to present a united front in the coming days. The opposition needs to be united. Sure, a Pimentel victory demonstrates unity but the aftermath may be dangerous. At this point, it is rather unthinkable for Pimentel to join the administration, so sacrifice is an option. If Villar decides to give way, then it is better for the opposition and for his presidential chances.
Third scenario: Senate President Lito Lapid
Kidding.
The opposition could still come up with a secret balloting and other means to consolidate their power but they need to think and rethink their decision. The senate presidency issue is not as simple as many would like to believe.
It is rather obvious that the choice is not a moral. Machiavellian is the more appropriate description. But I did warn you. You have to think like a shrewd businessman.
Last night, I was enjoying my last TV marathon for the week since Hell Week officially starts today. Hell Week is midterm examinations. I was wrong Hell Week or Hell Months started yesterday. Or even a few weeks back.
It just pisses me off to see Manny Villar and Miguel Zubiri smiling back at you while they innocently hide behind the facade of their pet bills. You must sympathize with me since a 5-day stay in the dormitory means no television. There is TV but the academic work does not permit me to exercise my rights as a couch potato.
Manny Villar
The moment I saw Jennylyn Mercado talking about violence against women and children, I knew that it is an early campaign. And I knew he was campaigning for the senate president. Why? Ms Mercado recently started her own clothing line in one of Villar's mall. Of course, you cannot accuse him of early campaign since there is nothing in the ad that says 'vote.' This is B.S. When politicians suddenly take pride of their pet bills, it means elections is just a few months away.
Eduardo Angara
His tagline 'Ang gara ng buhay,' has the natural ability of reverting my human instincts into its atavistic nature. Loosely translated, it means 'a fabulous life.' I would just like to remind you that Angara is the same guy whose diary is a significant basis for the Supreme Court's decision on the legality of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo's so-called presidency. Plus, he immediately jumped to the other side of the political fence even before FPJ died. Yeah. It is a fabulous life.
Ralph Recto
I have already articulated my annoyance to his 'Christmas message' but I definitely love to reiterate it again. Just remember that he advocated the enhancement of value added tax. Tip: if your blood rises to dangerous levels whenever you see grocery receipts, instead of screaming well-known profanities just shout 'Ralph Recto.' The value and meaning is just the same.
Miguel Zubiri
When politicians start carrying babies, you know that campaign period has started. The last time Miguel Zubiri made me laugh was when he and Jose De Venecia were surrendering Con-Ass. The representative of Bukidnon was on the verge of some major tear duct explosion. That was funny. But his bio-diesel ad is not. Analyze his ad. Do you actually believe that most Filipinos would opt to stay in our country because of the economic promise of his bio-diesel act or work overseas? Who would really benefit from his act? Small sugar farmers or the hacienderos and hacienderas?
These four clowns are just a few reasons why I decided to place the responsibility of condemning early campaigns on my cholesterol-filled shoulders. Even couch potatoes should exercise their vigilant rights for the sake of fair elections.
Did you notice that the early campaign predators are administration allies? Yes. Angara, Recto, and Villar have been loyally ambivalent for...since time immemorial. Just goes to show what pork barrell could do.
