Showing posts with label 2010 elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2010 elections. Show all posts

Thursday, July 05, 2007

The 2010 Elections: Much-Improved MacGuffin




A MacGuffin is a plot device that advances the storyline or motivates the characters but has little relevance to the story. The Oscar-ignored but still legendary Alfred Hitchcock popularized and made it as an art form. The ugly bird statue in The Maltese Falcon is the best example of a MacGuffin.

Today, there is a huge MacGuffin hovering in the Philippine political landscape. It is the 2010 presidential elections. But this is a much-improved MacGuffin. Unlike Hitchcock's, the 2010 MacGuffin has huge relevance to the story. Plus the motivation it provides for the lead personalities would shame the acting exploits of Sydney Greenstreet and Peter Lorre.

Story: The 15th President of the Philippines
MacGuffin: 2010 Presidential Elections
Red Herring: The Senate Presidency and the so-called Opposition Split
Lead Characters
1. Manuel Villar
2. Manuel Roxas
3. Panfilo Lacson

Supporting Characters
1. Loren Legarda
2. Francis Escudero
3. Alan Peter Cayetano

The two Manuels is sure to run in the next big fight. Lacson will take another stab. Legarda is the a senate topnotcher twice and is touted to be a strong presidentiable. Escudero is the dark horse. He finished a close and strong second and has the strong political backing. The main criticism is his youth and lack of national experience. As they say, he has so much time in the world.

The battle for the senate leadership is a red herring but with huge consequences. I believe that this is a staged act. Roxas, Lacson, and Legarda are pushing for Nene Pimentel's candidacy. But it is so obvious that they are doing so to remove a huge 2010 obstacle which is Manuel Villar. It seems that he will have a huge advantage over his future rivals if he retains his current position. As Roxas articulated, 'this is to level the playing field in 2010.' Such hypocrisy! After winning in 2004, this guy faded into obscurity then tried to resurrect his dismal performance with a so-called public service ad in the last elections. Oh. He raised a howl on his pet bill.

Question: why doesn't any of the three senators run for the Upper House presidency?
Answer: I have no idea.

Everything seems to be going smooth until it hit two bumps, Escudero and Alan Peter Cayetano will vote for Villar.

How can these two rabid oppositionist vote for Villar? Cayetano has not said anything and Escudero assured that he will remain an opposition regarding pertinent issues.

So...the three lead characters will not be able to stop Villar. Thus throwing another red herring - the opposition split. Serge Osmena has said that the 2010 elections is causing the fracture in the Genuine Opposition. He is most definitely correct. Lacson intimated that Villar had an alliance with the Gloria Macapagal Arroyo after the midterm elections. But of course, the loyalty issue lost credibility with Roxas' 'level the playing field strategy.'

Villar, much as I dislike this guy, run under the opposition slate. He has not done anything (at least in public) that shows he has abandon the cause of the opposition unless you count the Lacson-Defensor Santiago floated rumors. He has lost a lot of ground in the last elections placing a dismal fourth. He thus needs to achieve some sort of political rebound. Roxas is in dire need of a political revival. In a one-on-one match with strict observance of financial use, Escudero will trample Roxas.

The odd one is Legarda. She is backing Pimentel but is not as vocal as Lacson and Roxas. I'm sure she is simply a wise predator. Watching silently as her testosterone-fueled rivals are fighting. But I am sure, given the right time, she'll sharpen those Pashmina-covered claws. Remember the rumors that she has dropped her fellow GO candidates in her sample ballots? She retorted that she will never do that and pointed out that her newspaper ads included all the candidates of the opposition. This is a half-truth. Sure the newspaper ad part is correct but the sample ballots? No. I still keep her sample ballots that was given to us by her father. It only included her name, Nikki Coseteng, and Martin Bautista. She is beautiful but she is also vicious.

Escudero is like a young owl perching wisely in a huge tree - watching his much older peers squabbling for position. He holds a great political momentum including a strong political party, an enormous youth volunteer group and that x-factor called charisma. That's why Lacson and company is trumpeting an opposition split and short of accusing Escudero and Cayetano of abandoning their cause.

Now, there is one character in this story that is not given much attention. Joseph Estrada. It did not came as a shocker that his son Jinggoy Estrada is rumored to be supporting Manuel Villar. Why? He did it before along with his mother. Eventually a new gossip floated: Manny Villar-Jinggoy Estrada for 2010. Expectedly, San Juan Mayor JV Ejercito expressed disappointment and sadness over the decisions of Escudero and Cayetano. But I am pretty sure that his emotion is really directed to his half-brother. It's a common knowledge that there is no love lost between the two.

One thing that puzzles me is this, why make a big fuss about the senate leadership? Whoever wins does not change the fact that the majority of the Filipinos hates the current administration. The opposition got whacked in the Lower House but still most of us would want a successful impeachment. Get this: the senate is not the 'genuine' opposition - the majority of the Filipinos are. Last elections, we just provided you a mandate so that our sentiments would be heard.

Do I honestly care about the senate leadership? Hell no. But I do want this senate to challenge the brutality and tyranny of the current administration. The two senate neophytes accused of treacherous acts suffered most of this administration's oppressive moves. Cayetano had to struggle with an unknown namesake while Escudero almost suffered the fate. Everything was thrown to this two except for the proverbial kitchen sink. You think they are stupid enough to strike an alliance with the enemy? They are young but they are not Gringo Honasan.

Reader, are you still following me? Are you still feeling well?

No?

Me too.

This is one MacGuffin in dire need of a conclusion. The bad news is that we have to wait for three more years to see its end.





Thursday, June 28, 2007

Possible 2010 Team-ups: Strengths and Weaknesses

It is not too early to think of the coming elections. The 2010 scenario is one of the hottest topics in the Team Chiz forum, be it the senatoriable or the presidentiable thread. So it is really not too early to talk about the future.

Or maybe I just find the whole cabinet revamp unworthy of a blog entry.

Constitutional changes aside, the possible 2010 team-ups and their strengths and weaknesses.


President: Loren Legarda
Vice President: Francis Escudero
1-2 punch. Literally. The first-placer and the runner-up in the recent elections – not bad – but will Filipinos want another woman president? If you ask my mother, the answer is no.

Strengths
Both are riding the crest of the opposition wave. Both are running high in terms of momentum. Both are young and popular candidates. Both are affiliated with the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC) which will provide the necessary organization.
Weaknesses
Money. They may attract funders but they also need to dig their own pockets.



President: Manuel Roxas III
Vice President: Francis Escudero
Young, popular, and with deeper financial resources.

Strengths
Same as above.
Weaknesses
The deafening silence of Mar Roxas. He spoke angrily against the inaction on his Cheaper Medicines bill and…what else did he said throughout his Upper House stint? Chiz vows to be the Boses ng Senado. Mar seems to be the Sore Throat ng Senado.




President: Panfilo Lacson
Vice President: Francis Escudero
It’s getting obvious that I am positioning Escudero as a vice presidential contender. Yes. Some kibitzers think that he would immediately head for the top post but I guess it’s a bit early for him. It is sure nice to the ‘youngest elected Filipino president’ but history is not just about being first. Why not settle for the ‘best Filipino president ever?’ Going back, the Lacson-Escudero tandem is gaining support among Team Chiz members. Why? Read on.

Strengths
Youth and experience. Popularity and financial ability. You get the idea? Plus, Escudero has the NPC machine behind him.
Weaknesses
Not much. Lacson seems impervious to all the Kuratong Baleleng accusations. This is not an objective assessment. I admit. I am one of those Team Chiz members anticipating this combination.



President: Manuel Villar
Vice President: Francis Escudero
What’s the connection between Villar and Escudero? The current senate president is one of the principal wedding sponsors of the Sorsogoanon senator, if I am not mistaken.

Strengths
Quite similar with the Lacson-Escudero tandem.
Weaknesses
Hmmm…same as above. I will not vote for the president though.

President: Loren Legarda
Vice President: Francis Pangilinan
Not quite palatable.

Strengths
Both candidates are popular. The tremendous media and showbiz connection could be a factor.
Weaknesses
Money.

President: Manuel Roxas
Vice President: Francis Pangilinan
Just a question, is Pangilinan affiliated with the Liberal Party? His supposed independent stance muddled my stock knowledge. If he is, then this combination will get the full backing of the Liberal Party.

Strengths
Young, popular, financially capable plus an ample amount of showbiz luster.
Weaknesses
If the recent election is any indication then Pangilinan is losing steam. If Roxas marries his supposed media diva fiancé then this might receive a much needed oomph.


President: Panfilo Lacson
Vice President: Francis Pangilinan
Again…not palatable.

Strengths
Experience, money and showbiz.
Weaknesses
It lacks chemistry. I just feel that their personalities will clash.

President: Manuel Villar
Vice President: Francis Pangilinan
Wednesday group connection? Isn’t Villar a Nacionalista while the other one is a Liberal ? Hmmm…

Strengths
Quite strong. Experience, money, and showbiz…
Weaknesses
…but they both lost momentum in the last elections.

Thus, you may conclude that the top five senatorial winners together Mar Roxas may slug it out three years from now.

How about in the administration side? Edgardo Angara-Joker Arroyo? Unless Zubiri dislodges the younger Pimentel in the senate race. Prospero Pichay-Mike Defensor? Do I hear a resounding ‘yes’ from the opposition to ensure their easy victory?

Or Alan Peter Cayetano-Antonio Trillanes? That will be too much for Mike Arroyo and Hermogenes Esperon.

Or Jojo Binay-Lito Lapid? That would be crazy fun. Or Miriam Defensor Santiago-Raul Gonzales? That is simply crazy.

Or Manuel Roxas-Jamby Madrigal? Sorry. That was the answer to a persistent blind item.

Or Loren Legarda-Edgardo Angara? Let’s not go there.